Scenarios of environmental change and possible impacts on forced migration

Frühmann, J., Jäger, J., (2008)

Environmental change has various effects on livelihoods and may force people to migrate. Several case studies are carried out within the EACH-FOR project to investigate the contribution of
natural degradation to migration flows. Hotspots of environmental degradation have been identified in more than 20 countries and regions worldwide ranging from desertification to sea level rise and from natural disasters to industrial pollution. The paper summarizes the hotspots and their characteristics and discusses scenarios that have been developed for some selected countries/regions. The scenarios are based on the GEO-4 narratives and downscaled to the specific level of each case study to investigate possible changes in the environment and impacts on forced migration flows within a time frame of 2050.

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