Global resource use in a business-as-usual world until 2030. Updated results from the GINFORS model.

Lutz, C. and Giljum, S. (2009)

In: Bleischwitz, R., Welfens, P.J.J., Zhang, Z.X. (Eds.), Sustainable Growth and Resource Productivity. Economic and Global Policy Issues, Greenleaf Publishing.

Abstract:

This book chapter presents results from the petrE project. In petrE, the global economy-environment-energy simulation model GINFORS was applied to simulate different scenarios of the implementation of an Environmental Tax Reform (ETR) in Europe. In this chapter, we present the results for a business-as-usual scenario (without additional policy measures) for the extraction of materials in Europe and globally up to the year 2030. The model calculations suggest that in Europe, material extraction will slightly increase in the next 20 years, from around 6 billion tonnes in 2005 to around 7 billion tonnes in 2030. In contrast, on the global level, material extraction will likely increase sharply, from around 60 billion tonnes today to more than 100 billion tonnes in 2030. This business-as-usual scenario assumes that per-capita resource consumption will remain high in industrialised countries and will significantly grow in emerging economies (such as China and India) in the next 20 years.