Challenges in assessing and forecasting biodiversity and ecosystem changes in Europe (EcoChange)

Challenges in assessing and forecasting biodiversity and ecosystem changes in Europe

The aim of EcoChange is to assess and forecast changes in terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems and in the ability of biodiversity and ecosystems to supply goods and services and to buffer against climate and land use change.

The project concentrates on the one hand on the improvement of models and the generation of new data. On the other hand it is planned to integrate the findings with socio-economic analysis. This will be done by integrated sustainability assessments in three case studies, led by SERI.

EcoChange wants to contribute to improvements in three major areas, namely:

1. the ability to predict biodiversity and species distribution patterns at a range of spatial scales sensitive to climate, land use and landscape structure
2. the simulation of ecosystem processes and responses to a range of scenarios enabling the forecasting of expected changes in the biome distribution and its functioning, and
3. the assessment of consequences of global change for ecosystems and plant species to provide goods and services to the population of the European Community.

This will be done by

1. improving the current data structure with respect to biodiversity, climate, land use and land structural information,
2. improving current models and test critical model assumptions to cope with the required forecasting,
3. integrating prediction uncertainties into forecasting,
4. testing a series of assumptions relevant for predicting the effects of global change upon biodiversity, ecosystems and their goods and services they provide for the whole century.

SERI will lead the socio-economic part of the project. This includes the gathering of socio-economic data as an input for land use change scenarios. Moreover, SERI will lead the work package, which develops an integrated sustainability assessment (ISA; see MATISSE) of the impacts of environmental change on ecosystem goods and services (EGS) as well as leading the science-policy interface together with partners from France.

EcoChange regional case studies

The ISA of the impacts of environmental change on ecosystem goods and services (EGS) will be developed on the scale of three regional case studies, located in Belgium, Switzerland and Romania. Biodiversity data and modelling will be an input for the land use scenarios that are going to be developed for these scales. Local stakeholders will be integrated in order to determine the system, think about sustainability visions and scenarios and to draw conclusions from the ISA process. The experimenting will be done by Agent Based Modelling (ABM).

SERI is responsible for drawing up the ISA framework and to set up the participatory process (in close cooperation with the local partners).