Modelling sustainable energy scenarios

Renewable energy in Austria: Modelling possible development trends until 2020 The project investigated possible economic, social and ecological effects of a sustainable energy policy. Within a participatory modelling process a sustainability model was used to simulate different energy scenarios (with a focus on renewable energy) for Austria until 2020.

Background and Project aims

Renewable energy plays an important role in Austria in order to reduce the dependency on imported fossil fuels and to support the reduction of greenhouse gases. This role will grow within the next years due to the fact that the current share of about 20% of the whole energy mix has to increase to 34% in the year 2020 in order to fulfill EU targets. In this respect, it is important to estimate and quantify the effects of an intensified use of different renewable energy carriers and technologies for the supply of heat and power on the environment, on economy and society.

Within this project, we aim at investigating possible economic, employment and environmental effects of an increasing use of renewable energy resources for heat and power generation. More specifically, an integrated environment-energy-economy model is used to simulate different energy scenarios with a focus on renewable energy for Austria until 2020.

Method

In order to analyse the research questions posed, the project comprises two main building blocks: the development of a simulation model and its application within a participatory modelling process. The simulation model developed integrates energy, environmental and economic aspects in one single and consistent modelling framework. The model then serves as a basis for quantifying the effects of different scenarios of a more ambitious use of renewable energy technologies in Austria.

The process of scenario modelling (from the development of scenarios to the dissemination of the modelling results) also integrates participative elements, since stakeholders (representatives of interests, politicians, experts) in energy policy and supply are actively involved in the scientific work. Therefore, the research and decision process is not only built upon the work of researchers, but also integrates knowledge, expertise and preferences of various stakeholders.

Results

The results of the scenario simulations indicate that the targets of increasing the share of renewable energies to 34% and to decrease CO2 emissions by 20% until 2020 cannot be reached. However, this result is due to the fact that energy use clearly increases over time. Thus, it is obvious that there is no escape from reducing energy consumption. Only if it is possible to stop its growth through huge efficiency gains and changes in behaviour can renewable energy fulfil the promised role to reach a sustainable energy system.

Downloads and Links

Download the executive summary of the final project report here.

Learn more about the project on www.energiemodell.at