Development of GEO Training Modules

Training modules on integrated assessment, impact strategies and scenario development and analysis

The Global Environment Outlook (GEO) is the flagship product of the United Nations Environment Programme (www.unep.org). SERI contributes to the development of a training resource book by writing modules on the GEO Process and on scenario development and contributes to a module on developing an assessment impact strategy.

The objective of the first module is to introduce the Global Environment Outlook (GEO) integrated environmental assessment (IEA) and reporting process. It shows why the approach of an IEA is necessary for making policy relevant recommendations about the state of the environment and its interaction with human development.

It begins with a short description of UNEP and its mandate from the United Nations General Assembly for keeping the global environment under review. To fulfil this mandate, the Global Environment Outlook (GEO) process has been developed and implemented. The goal of the GEO process is to ensure that environmental problems and emerging issues of wide international significance receive appropriate, adequate and timely consideration by governments and other stakeholders. Integrated Environmental Assessment provides a participatory, structured approach to linking knowledge and action. The module concludes by providing examples of three sub-global GEO assessments, which show how the processes started and were carried out, their main results and how they have been followed up.

The second module shows how to develop scenarios and analyse them either in terms of the impact they would have on existing policies or the kinds of policies that would be needed in order for a particular scenario to unfold. The module provides the basis for an entire process for developing and analysing scenarios. A small number of examples of scenarios illustrate the range of scenarios that has been developed, from specific country/regional exercises to global visions of the future, covering different time frames.

While there are many different processes that have been used to develop and analyse scenarios, most of them involve a set of steps similar to the list developed in this module, with differing emphasis on particular steps. The steps of the scenario process described in the module are:

1. Establishing the nature and scope of the scenarios
2. Identifying Stakeholders and Selecting Participants
3. Identifying Themes
4. Identifying Driving Forces
5. Identifying limits and targets, and corresponding policies
6. Selecting Critical Uncertainties
7. Creating a Scenario Framework
8. Elaborating the Scenario Narratives
9. Quantification: selecting indicators and trends
10. Quantitative Analysis and Modeling (optional)
11. Iteration between Narratives and Quantification (optional)

The process for using already existing scenarios is also described.