Development of a Forecasting Framework and Scenarios to Support the EU Sustainable Development Strategy (FORESCENE)

FORESCENE developed an analytical framework for consistent environmental sustainability scenario building (forecasting, backcasting, simulation) in areas such as water, soil, biodiversity, waste and natural resources.

The development of this framework for scenario building focused on problem issues and priority policy fields such as agriculture, infrastructures/land use, industry/economy, which were selected in close contact with the EU Commission. The project focused on backcasting, to identify different scenarios leading to the achievement of future targets.

FORESCENE

(1) described the chosen environmental problems, reviewed policy objectives and indicators, and determined the cross-cutting driving forces;

(2) developed core elements of integrated sustainability scenarios (goal definition);

(3) determined measures and processes to be considered for change (pre-backcasting);

(4) addressed quantitative and qualitative parameters for measurement (parameterization);

(5) developed a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario framework and example projections (forecasting);

(6) developed alternative scenarios (incl. backcasting);

(7) checked the options for modelling, and

(8) worked out conclusions.

To integrate the eight steps FORESCENE organized a series of workshops to involve DGs and stakeholders, to integrate knowledge on (a) cross-cutting drivers of various environmental problems and priority policy fields, and (b) to define essentials for integrated sustainability scenarios in terms of goals and cross-cutting policy measures. Further experts were involved at various stages of the project. The project resulted in recommendations for future policy development with regard to the EU´s sustainability strategy and the framework for Impact Assessments and concrete proposals for the use and extension of existing simulation models.

Contribution of SERI to FORESCENE

In FORESCENE, SERI was responsible for organising a high-level expert workshop for the activity field industry/economy, which took place on 23 and 24 October 2006 at Cafe Central in Vienna.

The first day of the workshop focused on the long-term sustainability goals and the key elements of future scenarios (Key question: Where shall we go?). The second day outlined a framework of the essential strategies and measures to reach the desirable future (Key question: How do we get there?)

The report from the workshop (as well as the report from other workshops) can be downloaded from the offical Forescene website. www.forescene.net

Publikation

FORESCENE Workshop “Industry / Economy” (Oct. 23-24, 2006, Vienna) Part 2