EACH-FOR

Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios

The EU FP6 funded EACH FOR project investigated the links between environmental degradation and forced migration. The project analyzed direct and indirect environmental effects on livelihoods and developed scenarios for environmentally forced migration flows.

Forced migration is a movement in which an element of coercion exists, including threats to life and livelihood, whether arising from natural or man-made causes. The changes of natural and human-made environment could become the most significant factors among the causes of forced migration. It is essential to get accurate information about the current and future triggers of forced migration in each country of origin and within Europe itself.

The general objectives of the project that was running for two years were to support European policies, research and the civil society with scenarios of “forced migration”, and to cooperate with other projects and institutions related to migration and environment degradation. The objectives were achieved by five interlinked research sequences:

Development of scenarios for the natural and anthropogenic causes of forced migration;

Analyze of direct (e.g. desertification) and indirect (e.g. conflicts) environmental effects on livelihoods;

Development of scenarios for potential forced migration flows, with emphasis on environmental migrants and displaced persons;

Contribution to the preparation of statistical indicators to measure environmental migrant flows; Dissemination.

The study of causes was a multi-disciplinary and multi-sectoral process. The list of methodological tools contained all traditional elements of research from primary data collection via statistical analysis and environmental evaluation to modelling. 23 cases were studied from the following regions: Europe and Russia, NIS and Central Asia, Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East and Northern Africa, Latin America.

The project produced:

• 23 case study reports

• 23 policy briefs

• 6 detailed sub-region or country level forced migration scenarios, including environmental migrants and displaced persons

• a synthesis report presenting the key findings regarding environmentally forced migration in the case studies

• and an online running “environment degradation caused forced migration” simulation model for demonstration and policy purposes.

SERI carried out the evaluation of environmental degradation for each case study, was involved in developing the scenarios on regional and national level and contributed to the synthesis report. Dr. Jill Jäger was scientific director of the project in the second year.

Public deliverables:

Publications

Preliminary Findings from the EACH-FOR project on Environmentally Induced Migration (September 2008)